Abstract: Spodoptera exigua Hübner is a significant global agricultural pest characterized by polyphagy and strong insecticide resistance. With a host range exceeding 170 plant species, it poses a severe threat to agricultural production in China. To clarify its potential distribution pattern and provide a scientific basis for monitoring, early warning, and control, this study integrated existing distribution data of S. exigua in China with key climatic factors, including temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Potential suitable areas were predicted using CLIMEX and GARP ecological niche models. The results showed that both models confirmed significantly higher suitability in southern China compared to the north. Core highly suitable areas were concentrated in southern Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, the Sichuan-Chongqing border, and central Hubei. The CLIMEX model predicted suitable areas across southern, southeastern, central, and southwestern China, while non-suitable areas included cold regions like northern Inner Mongolia and northern Heilongjiang, as well as arid zones like eastern Xinjiang. The GARP model predicted a broader suitable range, with most regions identified as highly suitable except for parts of Tibet, Qinghai, and Hainan. Discrepancies between the two models primarily occurred in the suitability level assessments for northern Xinjiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang. The study indicates an extremely high invasion risk for S. exigua in China, necessitating intensified monitoring and control in regions such as Hunan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi. Through complementary validation of the two models, this study enhances the reliability of prediction results and provides crucial theoretical support for regionalized precision control of S. exigua.