Abstract: Trend yield, practical yield and fluctuating yield for vegetables of 9 cities and 8 main kinds of vegetables in Fujian were analyzed with grey system model on production risk of Fujian vegetable industry. Contribution of yield per unit area and planting area to tolal vegetable yield were determined, and the Huctuating characteristics for vegetable yield per unit area of Fujian and effects of influencing factors, including social factors and meteorological factors, on yield fluctuation were analyzed.The results showed that the yield per unit area of Fujian were increasing yearly, and the yield fluctuation among years were not obvious; and it was meteorological factor that affected the yield per unit area of the onion and garlic, and aquatic vegetable, meanwhile the yield of vegetables per unit area in Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Nanping. The results of the paper supplied foundation for the evaluation of vegetable production risk and the insurance redefinition in Fujian.