农业碳排放的EKC检验及影响因素研究——以长三角地区为例

    Study on the EKC Test and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emission——A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region

    • 摘要: 依据1995-2019年长三角地区农业相关数据,利用IPCC碳排放系数法计算出该地区农业碳排放量,并对计算结果进行EKC曲线分析,进一步使用LMDI分解法分析农业碳排放的影响因素及其贡献度。结果表明:长三角地区农业碳排放与农业人均GDP之间存在EKC曲线关系;农业生产效率是长三角地区农业碳减排的主要原因;农业劳动力规模对农业碳减排的作用也尤为重要;长三角地区农业碳排放量不断增加的首要因素为农业经济发展水平;农业生产结构一定程度上也造成了农业碳排放量的增长。根据上述研究结论,对长三角地区农业低碳发展提出政策建议:提高农业生产效率;优化农业生产结构;助力农业机械化和规模化的推进;树立低碳循环发展理念。

       

      Abstract: Based on the agricultural data of the Yangtze River Delta region from 1995 to 2019, the agricultural carbon emissions in the region were calculated by using the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method, and the results were analyzed by EKC curves, and the influencing factors and contribution degree of agricultural carbon emissions were further analyzed by using the LMDI decomposition method. The results showed that there was an EKC curve relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and per capita agricultural GDP in the Yangtze River Delta region. The agricultural production efficiency was the main reason of agricultural carbon emission reduction in the Yangtze River Delta region. The scale of agricultural labor force played an important role in the agricultural carbon emission reduction. The primary factor of increasing the agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region was the level of agricultural economic development. And the agricultural production structure also caused the increase of agricultural carbon emissions to some extent. According to the above research conclusions, some policy suggestions were put forward for the agricultural low-carbon development in the Yangtze River Delta region, including improving the agricultural production efficiency, optimizing the agricultural production structure, promoting the agricultural mechanization and large-scale development, and establishing the concept of low-carbon and circular development.

       

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