生态视角下内蒙古自治区粮食生产直接补贴政策效果分析

    Analysis on the Effect of Direct Subsidy Policy for Grain Production in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from an Ecological Perspective

    • 摘要: 在坚定保障粮食安全不能动摇,维护生态安全也不容忽视的背景下,分析内蒙古自治区的粮食生产直补政策的应用效果,以期为安全、生态地推进粮食增产提供政策建议。采用面板向量自回归模型,以内蒙古自治区12个盟市2004-2020年的宏观数据为研究样本,对内蒙古自治区粮食生产直接补贴政策进行了Granger因果检验、脉冲函数分析及方差分解。结果表明,该政策并未对粮食产量和生态安全起到明显的促进作用,据此提出应探索依据商品粮产量进行补贴的方法,通过补贴指导不同地区根据水资源与耕地的承载能力适度安排粮食生产规模,提升资源生态与粮食生产的匹配度。

       

      Abstract: Under the background of firmly ensuring the grain security and maintaining the ecological security, the application effect of direct subsidy policy for grain production in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was analyzed in order to provide policy suggestions for promoting the grain yield increase in a safe and ecological way. By using the panel data vector auto regression model and taking the macro data of 12 League cities in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2018 as the research sample, Granger causality test, impulse function analysis and variance decomposition on the direct subsidy policy of grain production in Inner Mongolia were conducted in this paper. The results showed that the policy did not significantly promote the grain yield and ecological security. Therefore, it was suggested that we should explore the method of subsidies according to the output of commercial grain, guide different regions to appropriately arrange the scale of grain production according to the carrying capacity of water resources and cultivated land, and improve the matching degree between resource ecology and grain production.

       

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